A Semi-Parametric Time Series Approach in Modeling Hourly Electricity Loads
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we develop a semi-parametric approach to model nonlinear relationships in serially correlated data. To illustrate the usefulness of this approach, we apply it to a set of hourly electricity load data. This approach takes into consideration the effect of temperature combined with those of timeof-day and type-of-day via nonparametric estimation. In addition, an ARIMA model is used to model the serial correlation in the data. An iterative backfitting algorithm is used to estimate the model. Post-sample forecasting performance is evaluated and comparative results are presented. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. key words Electricity load forecasting; nonparametric regression; backfitting; time series; ARIMA model
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